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Prediction for CME (2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-01T23:45Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45486/-1
CME Note: Large partial halo CME seen in GOES CCOR-1 with brighter bulk mostly directed to the northwest with wider, fainter shock extending from the north to the southwest starting around 2026-04-01T23:45Z in association with a large-scale, strong filament eruption occurring near N28W25 around 2026-04-01T23:00Z with an associated long-duration C-class flare; the eruption is characterized by destabilizing filament channel starting as early as 22:30Z in SDO AIA 193 followed by a lift off of the filament channel best seen in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 with bright post eruptive arcades and a broad, large dimming siganture seen best in SDO AIA 193. The core prominence structure and the widely opening field lines are also seen very well in GOES SUVI 284.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-04-03T15:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-05T10:37Z (-10.84h, +12.67h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 66.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

*** LASCO ***
Time of Launch: 2026/04/01 23:15Z
Plane of Sky 1: 03:55Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 11:15Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction
POS Difference: 7:20
POS Midpoint: 07:35Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:20

Numeric View/Impact Type: -2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~10
Travel Time: ~10 * 8:20 = 83:22

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2026-04-05T10:37Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2026/04/02 13:10Z

Lead Time: 25.82 hour(s)
Difference: -43.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2026-04-02T13:13Z

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